Guest Post | Can Biden boost Saudi Arabia-Israel ties?

By Tridivesh Singh Maini | As the US President prepares to visit the oil-rich kingdom in July, several critical questions loom large.

Over the next few months, US President Joe Biden’s West Asia policy is likely to be tested along various parameters. 

First, the US President needs to keep oil prices under check in the run up to the midterms later this year. In that context, the recent announcement by OPEC+ countries that they will drill more oil is welcome news for him. 

During the ministerial meeting on 2 June, ministers of OPEC+ countries agreed on adding 6,48,000 barrels of oil daily in July and August as opposed to the earlier quantum of 4,32,000 barrels per day. 

Following the Ukraine-Russia war, Biden had asked Saudi Arabia and UAE to drill more oil, which they had both declined. 

The US President has denied that his scheduled visit to Saudi Arabia next month, which has faced scathing criticism from not just human rights activists but also democrat lawmakers in the US, is prompted by the oil factor.

He has said while commenting on his Saudi visit in July 2022:

“The commitments from the Saudis don’t relate to anything having to do with energy. It happens to be a larger meeting taking place in Saudi Arabia.”

While oil is an important aspect, Biden is also keen to broker a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel (the US President shall also be visiting Israel), along the lines of the Abraham Accords.

Notably, trade between UAE and Israel was estimated at USD 1.2 billion in 2021. Both countries also signed a Free Trade Agreement FTA in May 2022.

Senior officials from Saudi Arabia and Israel have been meeting in recent months. In 2020, former Israeli PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, visited Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and then-Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, in 2020 for talks over advancing diplomatic relations. 

Apart from high level interactions between officials of Israel and Saudi Arabia, the last few months have been witness to visits by heads of Israeli tech companies to Saudi Arabia.

Saudis have also invested USD 2 Billion venture in a private-equity fund, Affinity Partners, headed by Jared Kushner (son-in-law of former US President Donald Trump and also, his envoy to the Middle East). Saudi Arabia has also invested in Israeli startups via a venture fund headed by Steven Mnuchin, who was Treasury Secretary in the Trump administration.

Israeli Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid while commenting on Biden’s upcoming West Asia visit said:

“The fact that the president’s going to fly directly from here to Saudi Arabia is probably signifying that there is a linkage between the visit and the ability to improve relations.” 

While Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stated that normalisation of ties with Israel will be subject to the latter’s addressing of the Palestinian issue, both view Iran as as a common threat, and as discussed earlier, are keen to strengthen bilateral economic ties.  

Both could also begin direct commercial flights and thus, create greater economic linkages. Last year, an Israeli private jet landed in Saudi Arabia for the first time. 

Progress in Saudi Arabia-Israel ties with US backing could help Biden prevent his popularity from sliding down any further, as he could tout it as a foreign policy achievement. This would further bolster MBS’ image at home and abroad, and also strengthen Bennett’s domestic image. 

The administration of Bennett, a right-winger, has acted somewhat differently from the US on certain issues. It has been critical of the Iran deal, and its stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not been identical to Washington due to its unique interests (Washington has given it sufficient leeway).

But, since Bennett runs a coalition, which consists of left-leaning and centrist parties, he is still less hawkish compared to his predecessor, Netanyahu. 

The next few months are likely to pose numerous challenges for the Biden administration. It remains to be seen if his Middle East visit in July helps his domestic popularity and international standing. 

For feedback/comments/questions on this piece, reach out to the author at tridivesh80@hotmail.com.