Guest Post | Why Imran Khan’s successor government won’t have an easy run
By Tridivesh Singh Maini.
This is a guest post by Tridivesh Singh Maini, a New Delhi-based policy analyst and Visiting Professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonepat.
On the midnight of 10 April 2022, the Tehreek E Insaaf (PTI)-led government of now-ousted Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, lost the no-confidence vote initiated by the opposition – a motley group of left-leaning and conservative parties, including the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).
The opposition secured the support of 174 out of 342 members. The day witnessed intense drama, with senior officials in Khan’s cabinet hinting at a foreign conspiracy behind the extraordinary ouster.
Before the vote, National Assembly Speaker, Asad Qaiser, and Deputy Speaker, Qasim Suri (who had dismissed the no confidence motion on 3 April), filed their resignations, following which PML-N leader, Ayaz Sadiq, chaired the assembly. While commenting on the verdict of the no-confidence motion, Sadiq said:
“Consequently, the resolution for vote of no-confidence against Mr Imran Khan, the Prime Minister of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, has been passed by a majority of the total membership of the National Assembly.”
Khan’s colleagues, including Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, emphasized on the point that the former cricketer had been removed on account of taking an independent foreign policy stance on the Ukraine issue. During his address to the house on 9 April, Qureshi accused the opposition of acting against the country’s interests. He said:
“Pakistan is a sovereign state, but they (opposition) want it to be a slave.”
PML-N Supremo, Shehbaz Sharif, and brother of former PM, Nawaz Sharif, is likely to take over as PM. The house will meet on 11 April to officially elect a new leader. Shehbaz, while commenting on the no-confidence motion, said that it was “a day of joy.”
The next election is due in August 2023, but the new government is likely to ask for early elections. What is clear is that it has a raft of difficult tasks cut out for itself.
First, sustaining this coalition won’t be easy. PML-N and PPP have been traditional rivals and even an earlier coalition experiment did not last long (though PML-N allowed the PPP government to complete its tenure). Even other political outfits that are part of the coalition have their own political interests and have been at loggerheads at different points of time with the two main political outfits.
Keeping such a disparate coalition together will be tough. Until now, Khan’s removal was the common goal. One wonders what shared interest will bind them now. Further, Khan commands strong support amongst a large section of the youth and his pitch of standing up to the US and charting a new course for Pakistan’s foreign policy found great resonance during the elections.
Second, the new government will have to maintain a cordial relationship with the army. In the past, PML-N has had problems with the army. Nawaz Sharif was removed in 1999 by a military coup, while his exit in 2017 was also the consequence of differences with the Pakistani military. Sharif was disqualified by the Supreme Court in 2017 from the office of Prime Minister as well as the National Assembly on graft charges.
Third, the new government will have to navigate a complex foreign policy spectrum. It will have to maintain warm ties with China, but also rebuild bridges with the West. While ties with the US have steadily deteriorated in recent years, Pakistan needs to prevent a further decline given the impending review of its Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list status in June 2022.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) too had put on hold its negotiations with Pakistan for the release of the instalment of $960 million (as part of the $ 6 billion EFF which was agreed in 2019).
The new government will also need to ensure that its ties with the European Union (EU) are back on track. The EU is an important trade partner and export destination for the Pakistani garment industry. Khan had criticised the EU when a group of western envoys had written a letter seeking support on the Ukraine issue. These remarks were criticised by Pakistan’s opposition parties and the business community.
While Khan’s government had hinted at improving ties with India, and some important steps had taken place in recent months – such as the reopening of the Kartarpur Religious Corridor, issuing of visas to Sikh and Hindu pilgrims for paying obeisance at religious shrines, and a proposal to start commence flights with the aim of giving a boost to religious tourism – it remains to be seen if both countries can resume bilateral trade (which had been disrupted in 2019 after the Indian government’s revocation of Article 370 for the state of Jammu and Kashmir). In the past, both the PML-N and PPP have advocated trade ties with India, and resumption of bilateral trade could be beneficial in the current economic situation.
Fourth, and perhaps the most important challenge for the new government will be fixing Pakistan’s broken economy.
A recent Asian Development Bank (ADB) report has forecasted a growth rate of 4% for 2021-2022 (in comparison to 5.6% in the previous year), while inflation is likely to be in double digits. The main reasons for inflation are the continuing depreciation of the Pakistani rupee, and international energy prices. The industrial sector is also likely to face challenges. On the bright side, the construction and agricultural sectors are likely to do well.
As the Chief Minister of Punjab, Shahbaz Sharif, has been hailed for his efficiency and delivery on infrastructure projects. For instance, China coined the term “Punjab speed” and “Shahbaz speed” in his appreciation. While his administrative experience may stand him in good stead to some degree, putting the economy back on track is truly an onerous task.
In conclusion, the successor government of Imran Khan has a heavy and tricky set of tasks on its plate. While there are some old hands, the challenges, both in terms of domestic policies and external relations, are daunting.
The author can be reached at tridivesh80@hotmail.com.